I love feeling certain with my position. My certainty doesn’t mean I am correct, it means I made the decision to research hard enough to feel confident. I’m not a fan of assumptions or probabilities. Both are on shaking ground even with over 90% going in siding with that positions. So what other course of action is there. Most things can never be proven to 100% certainty. At least with an educated guess, you are as close as possible to the truth, and therefore can breathe easier right? Well that’s the rub for me.
If you haven’t notices, I go out of my way to use terms like “most” and “usually” instead of “all” and “always”. I am not a prophet or oracle, so I know very little as fact. If history and science has taught as anything, information that was once certain can be overturned with new evidence and further research. History itself is written by the winners, and usually with one person’s perspective. I’m not saying that everything we know has the ability to be overturned, but some of it can be so I am someone who steers clear of stating facts and instead focuses on my own experiences to be my truth. I’m very careful of saying “in my opinion”, ” I feel”, or “in my experience” because my truths are, and can only be based on my experience and research.
I can imagine that kind of thinking seems exhausting, and in truth it used to be. I often times had to start over in the middle of my sentences, or add it on at the end because I would see the faces of those on the receiving end, and I am not a person that likes confusion. I seriously get upset if I my words are misrepresented or given extra meanings I did not intend because I am trying to be careful and as clear as possible. In doing so, I don’t make guesses or grand statements to prescribe to anyone other than myself. I know my gut and myself, and those are the only thing I can speak on.
So lets talk about the gut. I would think many feel listening to your gut is akin to making an educated guess. I can get with that. My feelings are, most aren’t really familiar with the rate of accuracy in their gut because that also takes awareness and time to develop. To me that gut instinct is the Universal wisdom working through your chakra points as a signal. Taking the mysticism out, it is our primitive fight or flight response to danger that shapes our next move if one is inclined to listen. I have heard from many people how often they wish they had trusted their initial feelings in countless situation, driving the conclusion for me that many haven’t mastered how to accept and understand themselves and the Universal wisdom available to us all.
The other thing about educated guesses are of course the last word…guess. How many times has that 10% or 1% worked out in the face of the overwhelming odds against them. It just illustrates to me most things can’t be stated as fact until it has actually happened. It’s all a guess because it truly is unknown until things reach their conclusion. Worry comes into place because of uncertainty and really does little aside from raising blood pressure and causing wrinkles. The future hasn’t come, and to be thinking about what might happen, even if the probabilities is in one’s favor seems a bit silly and wasteful of the limited time we all have in this conscious mind.
I can also say it in harsher tones, who cares. Sometimes the situation that is calling for this educated guess has little to no practical use in one’s life. In Buddhism, the Buddha talked about idle chat, which I feel refers to gossip but also conversation that have no direct purpose in my life or those I am speaking with at the time. It’s wasted energy and time that could be used bettering the Universe or even just ourselves, which will in turn better the Universe. I understand it can become very difficult to make all conversations meaningful, but it’s all about making an effort and taking small steps in life. And who is to say, discussing the last episode of Empire, doesn’t have meaning in that moment for those involved ( had to give a shout to one of my new shows). I don’t see this statement attributed to the Buddha, as suggesting conversations that bring joy and relieve to this cycle of suffering to be a waste of time. Sometimes one can earn a break from being all-purpose from time to time, and again the purpose there might be to relieve someone else’s pain, it’s just hard to know and individual.
The issue for me is I don’t like guessing of any kind. I pose a lot of questions because I don’t have the answers. I position a lot of my post with multiple perspectives because there are more perspectives than just mine. I do make clear where I fall, but I’m not someone who is so rigid in my own thinking I can’t accept someone’s thoughts and even do more research if they have information that is compelling. I’m a constant seeker and I am only certain until I am not.
I’m going to repeat that. I am only certain until I’m not. The information we tend to have is again, based on our experience and our personal research. To that end, everyone is right with the possibility of being proven wrong. I prefer not guess on anything but to speak on what I know because I took the time to research, or I lived it so I’m sharing my experiences. The line is very thin but I’m fine dancing that line.
Educated guesses might have educated in front of them and the seal of approval from the majority. So did a lot of things we know longer see as applicable today.